Datafolha Poll Projects Lula vs. Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil Runoff

The significance here is less the horse race than the consolidation of a two-way field, which tends to sharpen the market's focus on fiscal policy continuity versus a change in direction. Brazil is a major commodity and digital-asset market, so positioning around the runoff can move local risk assets before any vote. Whether Datafolha's projection holds as the campaign develops is the open question, and whether other pollsters converge on the same pairing is worth watching.