TREE NEWS reports: European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said rising long-term interest rates will curb economic growth and make the pass-through to inflation weaker than expected. Core inflation gauges show no clear upward shift in the medium-term outlook, he said, adding that the ECB remains on a “middle path” for monetary policy where a moderate response is appropriate. A second wave of energy supply shocks would pose upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.
ECB’s Lane: Rising Long-Term Rates to Weigh on Growth, Dampen Inflation Pass-Through
Lane's framing matters because it lets the ECB justify a moderate stance without committing to either direction: weaker pass-through does the work of tightening, so the policy debate shifts from how high rates go to how long they stay. The asymmetry he flags is the real signal — an energy shock would push inflation and growth in opposite directions, which is the hardest combination for a central bank to answer. Whether core gauges stay flat is the open question.
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