Citi FX Strategists Turn Bearish on EUR/USD

This is a notable shift because it ties two very different drivers — Fed policy and geopolitical risk — into a single directional call, which is a more conditional view than a simple rate-differential trade. It matters most for anyone holding euro exposure or pricing cross-border risk, since a sustained hawkish Fed plus Middle East escalation would reinforce the same dollar bid. The open question is whether both drivers persist; if either fades, the case weakens considerably. Also worth watching is whether other desks converge on this view, which would matter more than one house's call.