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AI × Crypto Macro

BofA: Easy Money in AI Capex Trade May Be Ending

Bank of America strategists say the easy-money phase of betting on AI-related capital expenditure is fading, as the combination of rising AI spending and shrinking discretionary spending is now fully priced in. The trade is therefore harder to squeeze excess returns from, and the strategists argue it is time for a selective rotation, warning that capex intensity may be overpriced while underestimating the US consumer’s willingness to spend is dangerous.

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AI take

The strategists' point is less about AI spending slowing than about the market having already absorbed the obvious version of that story, which shifts the burden of proof onto stock-picking rather than broad exposure. The warning cuts two ways: capex intensity may be overpriced, while the US consumer's resilience may be underpriced, so the rotation they describe is really a repricing of two assumptions that have traded as consensus. Whether that repricing shows up as dispersion within AI-linked names, or as a broader re-rating, is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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