Fed’s Waller: 2027 Dot Plot May Show Rate Hike Early in Year, Cuts Later

Waller's framing is notable less for the hike itself than for the sequencing: tightening first, easing later, inside a single projection year. That is an unusual shape for the dot plot, which typically slopes in one direction, and it implies the Fed's own longer-run view now accommodates a policy path that is not a simple cutting cycle. What matters is whether other officials echo this two-sided structure or treat it as one governor's idiosyncratic read; the dispersion of the dots, not the headline level, is the thing to watch.