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Physicists Say Formula Predicts When AI Chatbots Turn Bad

Physicists at George Washington University say a formula can estimate when an AI chatbot will flip from good answers to bad ones. Early tests on small models back the approach, the researchers said. The work points to a way of forecasting chatbot degradation before it shows up in outputs.

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AI take

The significance here is less about any single chatbot and more about whether AI reliability can be treated as a measurable property rather than something discovered after deployment. If a formula can flag degradation before it reaches outputs, that has obvious implications for any RWA or crypto operation leaning on AI for compliance, monitoring or customer-facing tools, where a silent quality drop carries real cost. The open question is whether the approach holds on the large, production-scale models that matter, since the reported tests were on small ones.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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