TREE NEWS reports: CITIC Securities said in a research note that stabilizing oil prices, weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls and lowered Fed rate-hike expectations have not reversed the rise in global long-term bond yields, driven by persistent private-sector financing demand. It said North America has exited the post-crisis low-growth, low-rate “abnormal state” on the back of trillion-dollar investment, and that high global rates are the norm to be managed before the AI investment cycle turns. It advises tracking that turning point closely.
CITIC Securities: High Rates to Persist Until AI Investment Cycle Turns
AI take
The notable claim is that AI capex, not monetary policy, is now the binding constraint on global rates — a framing that puts the technology buildout at the centre of macro pricing rather than on the sidelines. That matters for any duration-sensitive exposure, from bonds to yield-bearing RWA structures, since a persistent high-rate regime changes the calculus for anything sold on carry. Whether the AI investment cycle actually turns, and how that shows up in private-sector financing demand, is the variable worth watching.
Generated by AI for reference only.
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