CITIC Securities: High Interest Rates Are the Norm Before the AI Investment Cycle Inflection Point

TREE NEWS update: A CITIC Securities research report points out that stabilizing oil prices, non-farm payrolls coming in below expectations, and downward revisions to Federal Reserve rate hike expectations have all failed to reverse the rise in global long-term bond yields, driven by persistently strong private-sector investment and financing demand. Fueled by trillion-dollar investment, North America has become the first to emerge from the “abnormal” post-financial-crisis era of low growth and low interest rates, and a global high-interest-rate environment is a norm that must be dealt with before the inflection point of the AI investment cycle. According to the report, the only demand insensitive to overseas high interest rates lies in North American AI and areas related to China’s central fiscal expansion. In terms of allocation, in the short term one can only respond with high-prosperity sectors and sectors with supply cleared out, and it is recommended to closely track the inflection point of the AI investment cycle.