TREE NEWS update: OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais said on October 12 that the group has cut its forecast for global daily oil demand growth in 2026 to 400,000 barrels from 1.4 million barrels at the start of the year. Speaking at the 25th World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, he said demand that had been deferred is expected to emerge gradually in 2027. He also said global primary energy demand is projected to be 23% higher than current levels by 2050, and warned of widespread underinvestment across energy production, already visible in refining.
OPEC cuts 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 bpd
AI take
The scale of the downgrade — from 1.4 million to 400,000 bpd — matters less as a demand signal than as a marker of how far OPEC's own demand narrative has moved in a single year, which undercuts the case for supply restraint. The refining underinvestment warning points to a structural squeeze on product markets that is separate from crude balances and more durable. Whether the deferred demand OPEC expects in 2027 actually materializes, and whether the group's forecast converges toward or diverges from other agencies, is the open question.
Generated by AI for reference only.
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