China to Cut NEV Export Tax Rebate to 9% From April 2027

The phased rebate cut signals Beijing is willing to let export margins absorb some of the cost of its trade détente with Brussels, rather than keep subsidizing volume at any price. The parallel quota assurance on hybrid vehicles matters more than the headline: it suggests the arrangement is being framed as non-discriminatory, which lowers the risk of a renewed tariff spiral. Whether the rebate reduction is calibrated to avoid a sharp export slowdown — and whether the EU arrangement holds — is the open question.