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AI × Crypto Macro

IMF: Global GDP Could Fall 1.1% by 2028 in AI Bust Scenario

The IMF projects global GDP output would be 1.1% lower by 2028 under an extreme scenario in which the AI investment boom unwinds and asset prices fall sharply. The estimate was published as part of the fund’s scenario analysis.

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AI take

The IMF's framing is notable less for the number than for the fact that a multilateral institution is now stress-testing an AI unwind at all — treating the boom as a systemic channel rather than a sector story. That matters for anyone whose exposure to AI-linked assets sits alongside broader macro risk, since the scenario runs through asset prices, not just tech earnings. Whether such scenario work translates into actual supervisory attention is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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