IMF Lifts 2026 Global GDP Growth Forecast to 3.1%

The upgrade is modest and narrow: the IMF credits AI investment, not broad demand, for offsetting an energy shock, which suggests the resilience it describes is concentrated in a few economies rather than global. That distinction matters for risk assets, since the same capital expenditure lifting the forecast is also the theme most exposed if that spending slows. The gap between the 2027 projection and 2025's actual growth is the more telling number, implying the fund still expects a gradual cooling rather than a reacceleration. Whether AI capex keeps carrying the outlook is the open question.