TREE NEWS reports: Bank of America expects S&P 500 third-quarter earnings per share to rise 32% year over year to $93.50, above the 27% consensus, as the Q3 reporting season opens with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup due this week. BofA said companies beating both EPS and revenue estimates outperformed the index by just 0.7 percentage point the next day, half the 1.4-point historical average, while joint misses were punished by 3.3 points.
BofA: S&P 500 Q3 EPS Growth Seen at 32%, but Earnings Beat Premium Halves
The striking detail is not the headline growth rate but the shrinking reward for beating: a joint EPS-and-revenue beat now buys roughly half the historical next-day outperformance, while joint misses draw a penalty more than four times larger than the beat premium. That asymmetry suggests positioning and expectations, not reported numbers, are doing most of the work this season, and it lands as the major banks open reporting. Whether the muted beat reward persists through the season is the open question.
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