Dalio Warns US Treasury Bear Market May Be Long

Dalio's argument is structural rather than cyclical: the buyers who historically absorbed Treasuries are stepping back just as issuance expands, so the adjustment falls to price via higher yields rather than to a new source of demand. That matters because Treasuries anchor global collateral and pricing, so a prolonged repricing transmits into every dollar-funded market, including crypto and tokenized RWA yields. The open question is whether the rebalancing arrives through rate pressure on the economy, as Dalio frames it, or through some other buyer stepping in first.