ECB’s Moulin: Inflation Driven Mainly by Middle East Conflict, Energy Factors

Moulin's framing matters because it separates a supply-driven energy shock from demand-driven inflation, which shapes how much tightening the ECB would consider necessary. Calling expectations well anchored suggests policymakers see limited second-round effects, while the nod to rising yields doing some of the tightening work implies a preference for restraint over escalation. The open question is whether that anchoring holds if the conflict and energy pressures persist.