IEA: Global Refinery Throughput to Rise 2.8M b/d by 2027

The projected rebound in refinery runs sits awkwardly against the IEA's own observation that Middle East refined product and LPG flows remain at less than half pre-conflict levels, which suggests the recovery is assumed to come from capacity elsewhere rather than a normalization of those disrupted routes. That distinction matters for refined product markets, where the bottleneck is logistics and trade flows, not crude supply. Whether the Middle East shortfall is restored, or the projected throughput growth materializes without it, is the open question.