TREE NEWS update: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country’s oil production will recover and grow as capacity increases, and that conditions in the fuel oil market are improving. Novak gave no figures or timeline for the expected output recovery.
Russia Oil Output to Recover and Grow on Capacity Gains, Novak Says
Novak's claim of recovering and growing output rests on capacity gains, not on any change in the external constraints that have shaped Russian flows since the invasion of Ukraine. Without figures or a timeline, the statement reads as a directional signal rather than a plan, and the absence of both is itself the notable part. The open question is whether capacity additions can translate into exportable volumes, given the shipping, insurance and buyer-side frictions that have redirected Russian barrels rather than reduced them.
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