ECB’s Simkus: No Clear Second-Round Effects Yet, Further Tightening May Be Needed

Simkus is keeping the door open on October without committing, which matters more than the data itself: it signals the ECB's reaction function is still data-dependent rather than paused. His read that French bond yield moves reflect fundamentals, not fragmentation risk, is the quiet but consequential part — it limits the case for targeted intervention. The minimum reserve discussion is an early tell that the ECB is weighing balance-sheet tools alongside rates. Whether October data actually settles the second-round effects question is the open issue.