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Macro

US September core CPI tops forecasts, pressuring Fed to hold rates in October

US September core CPI rose 0.33% month over month, above nearly all Wall Street forecasts and marking a second straight upside surprise, after a 0.29% gain in August. The reading strengthens the case for one more Fed rate hike this year, when nearly all officials projected an additional increase in their rate forecasts at last month’s unanimous vote.

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AI take

A second consecutive upside surprise in core inflation gives the Fed cover to stay hawkish, and the unanimity behind officials' rate forecasts suggests the hurdle to another hike is lower than markets may assume. That matters most for rate-sensitive corners of crypto and tokenized real-world assets, where the cost of carry and the appeal of yield-bearing instruments shift with the policy path. The open question is whether the next inflation print confirms a trend or a one-off, and whether officials' rhetoric hardens ahead of the October meeting.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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