Odoxa Poll: Le Pen Would Beat Philippe 53-47 in French Presidential Runoff

The poll's significance lies in its second-round framing: a Le Pen runoff win, and Mélenchon's presence in that round, would reshape the political risk map that French and euro-denominated markets price. The read-through touches European assets broadly, given France's weight in the bloc, though a single poll is a snapshot rather than a forecast. The open question is whether these runoff pairings hold as the campaign develops, and whether other surveys corroborate the same second-round composition.