Richmond Fed’s Barkin Won’t Predict October FOMC Outcome, Says September CPI Ran Hot

Barkin's refusal to pre-commit to an October outcome, paired with his characterization of September CPI as hotter than he would have liked, signals that the inflation data are still doing the work of shaping the Fed's reaction function rather than any settled consensus. The emphasis on PPI as an input to the outlook matters because it keeps the pipeline side of inflation in the frame, not just consumer prices. The open question is whether subsequent data reinforce the hot CPI read or soften it before the meeting.