TREE NEWS reports: ARK Invest’s updated open-source valuation model puts Tesla at about $4,400 per share by 2031, implying a roughly $17.5 trillion market capitalization under its base case. Monte Carlo simulations across 32 variables produce a bear case near $3,300 and a bull case near $5,000, with annualized gains of 53% and 66%, respectively. ARK expects Robotaxi to generate about 80% of enterprise value by 2031, while cumulative Optimus sales reach about 1 million units.
ARK Invest Models Tesla at $17.5T Market Cap by 2031, $4,400 Target
AI take
The striking part is how narrow ARK's scenario spread is: a bear case only modestly below the base case, despite 32 simulated variables, implies the model is effectively a bet on Robotaxi economics rather than a distribution of outcomes. With roughly 80% of enterprise value tied to a service that does not yet exist at scale, the valuation is less a forecast than a statement of faith in one segment. The open question is whether ARK's own published assumptions hold up as Robotaxi commercialization timelines become observable.
Generated by AI for reference only.
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