JPMorgan Asset Management Projects 10% Annual Bitcoin Return Over 10-15 Years

The significance lies less in the 10% figure than in the fact that a major asset manager has formalized a long-horizon return assumption for Bitcoin at all—moving it from a curiosity to a modeled asset class. Yet the simultaneous refusal to add it to main portfolio models shows the gap between acknowledging an asset's expected return and accepting it into strategic allocation. That tension, not the number itself, is the real signal for how institutional adoption may proceed. Whether other large managers follow with their own long-term assumptions, and whether JPMorgan's own models eventually shift, is the open question.