Economists Expect ECB to Hold Next Week, Raise Rates in December to 2.75%

The gap between economist consensus and market pricing is the real story here: survey respondents see one more hike and a finish line, while markets are positioned for considerably more tightening. That divergence matters for anyone holding rate-sensitive exposure, from euro-area credit to tokenized yield products that track policy expectations. The December meeting is framed as the terminal point in this forecast, but the market clearly disagrees — whether the survey or the pricing proves right is the open question, and the ECB's own communication between now and then is what will settle it.