Russia’s central bank ties rate decision to CPI and inflation expectations

The upward revision to the Bank of Russia's end-2026 inflation range, paired with a softer growth outlook, signals a stagflationary tilt that narrows the room for easing. By explicitly anchoring the rate path to CPI and expectations, the central bank is keeping optionality rather than committing to a direction. For ruble-linked and broader emerging-market RWA exposure, the key variable is whether inflation expectations decouple from the revised headline forecast. Whether the growth downgrade forces a policy trade-off sooner than the inflation path allows is the open question.