NZIER Shadow Board Urges 25bp RBNZ Hike to 3% OCR This Week

The shadow board's call is a useful barometer of expert sentiment rather than a forecast of the decision itself, and its significance lies in the gap it may reveal between outside opinion and the RBNZ's own judgement. A recommendation to tighten further signals that inflation concerns remain live in the professional community even as the central bank weighs the growth cost of higher rates. Whether the RBNZ follows the shadow board or holds is the open question, and the reaction will say as much about the bank's tolerance for criticism as about policy direction.