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Macro

Copper cash premium over LME three-month jumps to two-month high

The premium of cash copper over the London Metal Exchange three-month benchmark surged to its widest in two months on Tuesday, briefly hitting $206 per tonne, the highest since the tail end of a major August squeeze. The backwardation signals tightening short-term supply, with copper prices at record levels this year largely driven by expectations of U.S. tariffs on refined metal.

Original source

AI take

The return of a wide backwardation is the detail that matters: it points to physical tightness in nearby metal rather than just paper-driven sentiment, even as record copper prices have leaned heavily on anticipated U.S. tariff expectations. That split — spot scarcity versus policy-driven forward pricing — affects fabricators, traders rolling hedges, and anyone exposed to the LME cash-to-three-month spread. Whether this backwardation persists past the August-style squeeze dynamics, or fades as tariff expectations shift, is the open question worth watching.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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