Lula Wins Brazil Runoff; Polymarket Insiders Profit $1.77M

The Polymarket angle is the more telling signal here: two accounts opened during the tightest polling window and captured $1.77 million on an outcome the market priced at just 18.5%, which will revive questions about information asymmetry in political prediction markets. The sharp Ibovespa reaction, hitting a circuit breaker at the open, shows markets had positioned for the opposite result, so the reversal from the first round caught capital offside. Whether prediction-market pricing for political events starts drawing more scrutiny, and whether Brazilian assets stabilize after the initial shock, are the open questions worth watching.