Exit polls show Netanyahu’s Likud projected to win 24 of 120 Knesset seats

Exit polls are a starting point, not a result, and the absence of coalition arithmetic in the data is the real story: a leading seat count alone does not settle who can form a government in a 120-seat Knesset. For markets and policy watchers, the relevant signal is whether the projected Likud lead translates into a viable governing bloc, since that determines the direction of Israeli policy. Whether the exit-poll margin holds as actual results come in, and what the coalition picture looks like once it does, is the open question.