RBNZ Minutes: Further OCR Hikes Possible, Outlook Dependent

The split vote is the real signal: a near-tie on the committee suggests the hold was a closer call than the headline implies, and the explicit warning about fuel prices and a weaker exchange rate points to imported inflation as the pressure point. What matters is that the bank flags inflation entrenching before expectations indicators respond — a credibility concern, not just a data one. Whether the hawkish minority grows, and whether second-round effects show up in domestic pricing, is the open question.