Citi cuts EUR/USD forecast, citing European risks and high oil prices

A forecast revision without a disclosed target is less a call than a signal about how banks are framing European risk right now: energy costs and a soft growth outlook are doing the work, not dollar-side strength. For corporates and cross-border treasurers, the more relevant read is that FX strategists are building euro weakness into their base case, which tends to feed through to hedging conversations before it shows up in spot. Whether other banks follow with similar revisions, and whether oil stays elevated, is the open question.