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Macro

BOJ: Real Interest Rates Have Risen Recently but Remain Low at Short End

The Bank of Japan said real interest rates have risen recently but remain low in the short-term segment, noting that interest costs stay sufficiently low relative to corporate profits. Corporate funding demand is increasing and financial institutions’ lending stance remains positive. The BOJ flagged risks from Middle East conflicts, expanding AI demand and foreign exchange volatility, saying Japan has entered a new phase in which it must watch for inflation overshooting rather than the price-decline risk of the past.

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AI take

The BOJ's shift from fighting deflation to guarding against overshoot is the substantive change here, and it lands as real rates, though higher, stay low at the short end and financing costs remain comfortable against profits. That combination supports the observed pickup in corporate funding demand and a constructive lending stance, so the near-term transmission channel runs through credit creation rather than through rate levels alone. The open question is whether import-driven pressures from Middle East conflict and FX volatility force a faster normalization than the still-low short-end real rate implies, particularly with AI-related demand adding its own impulse to activity.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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