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Macro

JPMorgan: T-Bill Demand May Lag Supply Growth by 2027

JPMorgan strategists including Jay Barry and Pankaj Vohra said in a report that U.S. T-Bill issuance is expected to keep growing, with privately held issuance rising by another $991 billion in 2027, making demand the core question. They see headwinds, expecting money-market fund AUM growth to match the larger inflows of 2024 or 2025 absent major market disruption like the 2020 COVID shock or 2023 regional bank stress. Foreign official investors still have room to return to steadier T-Bill buying, but stablecoins lack a similar rationale without a crypto rebound or clearer regulation.

Original source

AI take

The significance here is structural: the marginal buyer base for T-Bills looks less able to absorb supply at the same pace, and the strategists flag that money-market funds and foreign official buyers may not repeat past absorption without a shock-driven catalyst. Stablecoins are named as a potential demand source but explicitly conditional on a crypto rebound or clearer regulation, which keeps that channel speculative rather than dependable. What's worth watching is whether money-fund inflows and official-sector buying reaccelerate on their own, or whether the market needs a disruption to generate the demand the issuance calendar assumes.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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