Cochilco forecasts refined copper surplus at 0.5% of global consumption in 2026, 0.8% in 2027

Cochilco's forecast matters less for the headline surplus than for what it implies about the refined market's direction: a modest imbalance widening over two years suggests supply is outrunning demand rather than a one-off build. The read-across lands on copper producers and refined-metal traders, while the physical tightness narrative that has supported the wider metals complex looks harder to sustain. Whether the 2027 figure reflects new capacity or softer demand is the open question, and that distinction will shape how the market treats the surplus.