TREE NEWS reports: Barclays strategist Alexander Altmann said about 60% of the S&P 500’s projected earnings growth for next year comes from semiconductor forecasts, with the broader tech sector accounting for 75%. In an earlier report, Altmann wrote that AI is now almost synonymous with semiconductors, and noted the S&P 500’s similarity to South Korea’s Kospi is surpassing that of a diversified 500-security portfolio. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell as much as 9.4% intraday Friday, its largest drop since early June.
Barclays: Semiconductors Drive 60% of S&P 500’s 2026 EPS Growth Forecast
AI take
The concentration Altmann describes cuts both ways: an index whose earnings growth leans this heavily on one industry inherits that industry's volatility, and Friday's intraday slide in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is a reminder of how quickly that transmission can happen. The comparison to the Kospi is the more telling detail — it implies the S&P 500 is behaving less like a diversified basket and more like a single-sector proxy, which matters for anyone treating broad-index exposure as inherently spread out. Whether earnings forecasts outside semiconductors can carry more of the load is the open question.
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