OKX Predicts Apple Beat at 71%, but First-Day Gain at 47%

The gap between earnings-beat odds and first-day gain odds is the real signal here: OKX traders expect a good print to be largely priced in, especially for Apple, where the two markets diverge most. That split matters for anyone using prediction markets as a read on sentiment rather than fundamentals, since it shows event outcomes and market reactions being priced as separate risks. Whether the earnings-beat and share-price-reaction markets converge as the reports approach is the open question.