Regulation Macro RWA

HTX Analyst: Split Congress Weakens Crypto Legislation Outlook

Nov 4, 2026 05:00 ET · 6h ago

TREE NEWS reports: Democrats have retaken both chambers of Congress in the 2026 US midterms, leaving President Trump with a divided legislature, HTX chief analyst Andy said the main shift for crypto is a weaker outlook for regulatory legislation. The already-passed stablecoin bill is unlikely to be reversed and stablecoin payments and RWA trends remain intact, but market-structure bills such as CLARITY will be harder to advance, with the industry relying more on SEC and CFTC administrative reform over the next two years. Policy certainty has declined, Andy said, and near-term price action is mildly bearish but should not be viewed with excessive pessimism.

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AI take

The practical takeaway is that the legislative channel for crypto in Washington has narrowed, shifting the locus of rulemaking toward the SEC and CFTC — agencies whose priorities can change faster and with less durable legal footing than statutes. That matters most for market-structure questions like exchange and token classification, where CLARITY's stall leaves ambiguity in place, while the stablecoin and RWA track appears insulated by the already-passed bill. Whether the industry's reliance on administrative reform produces workable clarity, or merely policy whiplash between agencies and future administrations, is the open question to watch.

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