Schroders’ Brown: US deficit may steepen yield curve as investors demand term premium

The notable point is the source and the framing: a senior buy-side economist publicly questioning the political-compromise assumption that underpins long-end Treasury demand, not forecasting a crisis. This matters most for duration-sensitive holders and for any RWA or crypto instrument priced off the long end of the curve. The mechanism flagged is a term premium repricing rather than a growth story, which is a different and slower-moving risk. Whether the new spending pledges actually translate into a wider deficit, and whether the long end responds in isolation, is the open question.