ECB’s Lagarde: December projections will help gauge need for rate hike

The signal here is process, not outcome: by naming the December projections as the gauge, Lagarde ties the next policy move to staff forecasts rather than to any pre-commitment, leaving the rate path genuinely data-dependent. That matters for rate-sensitive pockets of crypto and tokenized RWAs, where valuations have leaned on expectations of a turning cycle. The open question is whether the incoming data actually shift the projections enough to force a decision either way — and whether markets read the December exercise as a genuine test or as a delay.