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WMO: 2023-2026 the four hottest years on record

Global near-surface temperatures from January to September 2026 averaged 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, matching full-year 2023 and 2025 and trailing only 2024’s record 1.55°C, the World Meteorological Organization said. The years 2023 through 2026 are now the four hottest on record. An early-year La Niña briefly curbed warming before El Niño pushed temperatures up again; the pattern is expected to persist into early 2027 and could lift the 2026 annual average further.

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AI take

The significance here is that the four hottest years on record are now consecutive, which shifts the story from a single spike to a sustained baseline — a detail that matters for anyone pricing long-horizon climate risk, from insurers and agricultural producers to carbon-market participants. The La Niña-to-El Niño swing shows how much year-to-year outcomes ride on short-term cycles layered over the trend. The open question is whether the expected persistence into early 2027 pushes the 2026 annual figure higher, and whether consecutive record years start feeding through to physical-risk assumptions rather than being treated as noise.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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