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Macro

Mexico Inflation Accelerates to 3.75%, Peso Edges Up 0.15%

Mexico’s headline inflation accelerated to 3.75% year-on-year in the latest data, above the 3.65% forecast, while core inflation rose to 3.80% versus a 3.78% estimate. The figures reinforce expectations that Banxico will hold its benchmark rate steady for an extended period after last Friday’s surprise 25-basis-point cut to 6.25%. The peso gained 0.15% to 18.5785 per dollar and Mexican stocks rose 0.9%.

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AI take

The more telling detail is the core print, which came in above forecast rather than the headline miss, since sticky underlying prices complicate the case for further easing after last week's surprise cut. Stubborn core inflation alongside a firmer peso and rising equities suggests markets are treating the cut as a one-off recalibration rather than the start of a sustained easing cycle. The open question is whether core inflation cools enough to justify another cut, or whether Banxico is now on hold longer than the rate move implied.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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