T. Rowe Price: US Treasury Yields Won’t Peak Until a Recession Hits

This is a notable framing from a major asset manager: it treats a recession not as a risk to be avoided but as the necessary condition for yields to peak, which implicitly flags the Fed's path as a potential policy error. That matters for anyone holding duration or pricing risk off the Treasury curve, since it suggests the current tightening cycle may not be near its end. The open question is whether the Fed's own communications begin to echo this "something breaks" logic, or whether data continues to support further hikes. Husain's prior call, now nearly two years old, also invites scrutiny of how his yield targets have tracked reality.