US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Falls to 97.8 in October

The miss is marginal, but the direction matters: small-business sentiment slipped rather than recovering, and the gap between the 97.8 print and the 98.2 consensus suggests forecasts were leaning the wrong way. Small firms are the most rate- and credit-sensitive segment of the economy, so a soft reading feeds into the broader debate over how durable domestic demand really is. Whether this is a one-month wobble or the start of a weaker trend in the next reading is the open question worth watching.