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Macro

US Treasury yields spike as inflation, Fed hawkishness trigger selloff

US Treasuries suffered one of their sharpest selloffs since April 2025 after inflation came in above expectations and a Federal Reserve official warned of larger rate hikes. The 2-year Treasury yield jumped as much as 21 basis points to 4.77% on Tuesday, its biggest single-day rise since Trump’s reciprocal tariffs roiled global markets. The move followed Fed Governor Waller’s comment that he would back a 50-basis-point hike if inflation keeps accelerating.

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AI take

The signal here is less the inflation print than the reaction function: a Fed governor openly floating a 50bp move reframes the debate from 'how long to hold' to 'how fast to tighten,' and the front end is repricing accordingly. That matters most for rate-sensitive corners of crypto and tokenized RWAs, where duration and carry trades depend on the path of short rates rather than the level. The open question is whether Waller's framing gains traction among colleagues or remains an outlier — that, not the headline yield spike, is what determines if this is a one-day repricing or a regime shift.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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