NIESR: UK Inflation Won’t Return to BOE Target Before 2030

The notable tension here is that NIESR pairs a delayed return to target with a slightly brighter growth outlook, which implies the think tank sees persistent inflation as less a demand problem than a structural one rooted in wage-setting. That distinction matters for how long restrictive policy may need to stay in place, and it puts the credibility of the target horizon — rather than the near-term path — at the center of the debate. Whether second-round wage effects prove as durable as NIESR assumes is the open question, and the growth upgrade cuts against the usual trade-off narrative.