Polymarket US trading volume jumps 266% from June to October

The striking part is that this growth is landing in the US-regulated venue rather than offshore, and that sports is doing the heavy lifting — which puts prediction markets in direct competition with licensed sportsbooks just as scrutiny intensifies. That combination matters for regulators weighing whether these contracts are derivatives or gambling, and for the broader sector's push for US legitimacy. The open question is whether volume can keep compounding under regulatory pressure, or whether sports-driven demand proves the most vulnerable part of the business.