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Goldman Sachs Adds March 2027 Rate Hike Forecast After Hot October CPI

Goldman Sachs kept its forecast for a second 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December and added a third 25-bp hike in March 2027, after US October CPI came in well above expectations. The bank said the third hike could come as early as January, but March is slightly more likely because November and December inflation data are expected to be milder, while larger price increases early in the year are seen pushing January inflation higher.

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AI take

The signal here is less the inflation print than the forecast architecture: Goldman is extending its hiking path into 2027, implying it sees price pressure as persistent rather than transitory. That matters for rate-sensitive corners of crypto and tokenized real-world assets, where the marginal buyer is often benchmarked to the front end of the curve. The bank's own reasoning is internally inconsistent — it flags January as possible but leans on seasonal pricing patterns to prefer March — so the timing is soft even if the direction is firm. Whether the milder November and December prints materialize is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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