Nomura Now Expects Fed Rate Hikes in December and Next March

A sell-side house flipping to expecting hikes rather than cuts is a meaningful signal about how the policy debate is being repriced, since Nomura is tying its call to CPI data and hawkish official commentary rather than to any single data point the item spells out. For crypto and RWA markets, the read-through runs through the discount rate and dollar liquidity assumptions that underpin risk appetite, so a hawkish repricing at the front end matters more than the headline itself. The open question is whether other forecasters follow Nomura's shift or treat it as an outlier.