Turkey Raises End-2027 Inflation Forecast to 21% from 15%

The upward revision matters less as a forecast than as a signal about the credibility of Turkey's disinflation path: a six-point lift to a year-end target this far out suggests the central bank is conceding that price pressures will run hotter for longer than it previously projected. For markets, the open question is whether this is a one-off reset of expectations or the start of a pattern of forecasts chasing reality. Watch whether the revised path is accompanied by any change in the policy stance, since a higher forecast without a corresponding policy response would widen the gap between official projections and market pricing.