Oil Has Absorbed War Premium; Brent May Hold Above $90 Even With a Deal

The key point is that the war-risk premium has already been priced out, so a peace deal would no longer be the bearish catalyst many might assume. That shifts the focus to fundamentals and supply-demand balances as the real driver of where prices settle. The asymmetry is notable: with the premium largely compressed, further downside is limited, while a renewed escalation could push prices above prior wartime highs. Whether the market can hold above $90 without the conflict premium is the open question.